It’s time to ring in the New Year!
Happy Holidays!!!!
As the song goes in Annie, tomorrow is only a day away, and I am definitely looking forward for 2008 to end so 2009 can start. It is natural for us to want a fresh beginning and after such a dismal year as 2008 has been, we can only hope for sunnier days ahead.
I pinch myself to make sure I’m not dreaming, but the headlines are intoxicating and it’s not even New Years Eve yet. I’m telling you, Hollywood couldn’t make up these stories.
- Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch or Lehman Brothers disappearing one way or the other.
- One of Detroit’s Big Three going bankrupt (which could have been resolved if everyone was willing to make concessions not just some).
- The Governor of Illinois running an auction house.
- The founder of a law firm in NYC employing 245 lawyers selling fake promissory notes.
- Trusting Bernie Madoff to invest you money, who in my world should be hung out to dry with the dirty laundry. I have always felt that anyone who embezzles one’s savings should be treated as the criminal whom they truly are. We didn’t have any of our client’s money invested with this crook.
- President Bush trying to catch some smelly shoe in Iraq, wishing he were the baseball player he always dreamt of being.
I have heard from many of my clients thanking me for keeping them informed during this global credit crisis which we have all suffered through and I will continue to be front and center. These are the times when investors need to stay focused on the big picture and not get caught up in the day to day noise. Years ago, I learned in a psychology class that misery loves company, but I can promise you that I’m not enjoying it and our firm will continue to look for the silver lining.
Fearing that the consumer may come upon harder times after the holidays are over and when their credit card bills begin arriving in the mail, I am cautiously optimistic about the economy for the first quarter of 2009. After today’s decision by the Fed, interest rates are at almost zero and Washington continues to bail out anyone and everyone, except maybe you and me.
The good news is that the stock market has always rallied from any/all events including the Great Depression, and no matter how depressed we may feel, we are not currently in another depression. The key to recouping losses is to stay invested for when the market turns around, and unless you are lucky, market timing isn’t the answer. Some investors may change their level of risk and trim stocks in their portfolios. If you have at least five years to recover, now is not the time to make macro changes in your investment philosophy. With Treasuries earning near 0% interest, some money market funds being under water after expenses, stocks, especially dividend paying stocks are looking like a viable long-term asset class from these levels.
For now, stay healthy, enjoy your family and friends and try not to watch CNBC which is as disheartening as any show can be with all of their “Breaking News” headlines. Hopefully I have provided you hope that markets can recover from a year like 2008!
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